The political challenges of sanctions

LESSON 5

GOALS: Often, we consider sanctions idealistically – while strict they avoid war – and simplistically – a carrot-and-stick framework. This has allowed sanctions to become ubiquitous while leaving us uninformed of the costs and limited efficacy sanctions may have. The objective of this lesson is to complicate these modes of analysis to allow a more nuanced and accurate understanding that shows more completely the challenges faced by using sanctions as the primary foreign policy tool.

INSTRUCTIONS: Either as a class or in small groups, conduct the following two exercises. First, discuss the logic tree detailed below showing the procedural challenges involved in the execution of sanctions. Second, watch and discuss the videos about the consequences of overusing sanctions on the international stage.

LOGIC TREE:

  1. Are sanctions used on friendly or hostile countries?

  2. Sanctions operate using a carrot-and-stick method of incentivization. What is the stick? What is the carrot?

  3. What is required of the foreign country to lift sanctions?

  4. Is there a political risk for a leader to lift sanctions on a hostile power?

  5. Does that risk increase or decrease the likelihood that sanctions will be lifted even on a compliant country?

  6. What impact does that have on the incentive structure of sanctions? Why would the foreign power change behavior if the lifting of sanctions is politically unlikely?

CLASS VIDEO DISCUSSIONS:

VIDEO 1 (2min): 

  1. When did financial sanctions begin to become a ubiquitous tool of U.S. foreign policy?

  2. What is the goal of financial sanctions?

  3. What were the first two major targets of financial sanctions by the U.S.?

VIDEO 2 (3min): 

  1. What are “secondary sanctions?”

  2. What effects do secondary sanctions have on how the U.S. viewed by its allies?

  3. If secondary sanctions make investments unlikely even when sanctions are lifted, what impact will this have on the effectiveness of sanctions?

VIDEO 3 (3min): 

  1. Why do sanctions push countries to use non-Western financial methods (de-dollarization, alternative banking sources, and central bank digital currencies)?

  2. Where is the focal point for alternatives to Western capital markets?

  3. What are some consequences of the declining effectiveness of sanctions because of their overuse?